Archives for posts with tag: Putin

One of the most celebrated personages in the history of the West.
He revolutionized military organization and training;
sponsored the Napoleonic Code, the prototype of later civil-law codes;
reorganized education; and established the long-lived Concordat with the papacy.
He was the moving spirit behind the intertwined series of conflicts known as the Napoleonic Wars, which had revolutionary repercussions, both militarily and politically,
in Europe as well as other parts of the world.
https://www.britannica.com/biography/Napoleon-I

Exasperated, the XIX-th century France had decided to change everything.

Please note that despite the rather inept leadership offered by the last three kings, France was the dominant European power of the moment. Economically, demographically and militarily.
Exasperated people tend to make rather poor decisions.

Napoleon Bonaparte was permitted to rise to power. To absolute power…
He yielded that power in such a way that he had angered most of his neighbors. Most of France’s neighbors… Which had banded together and defeated him. Twice.

Which was a premiere.
A bully put down by an alliance… A bunch of autocrats put off by another who decided they had enough.

The same template was used against Germany’s dictators. Both Wilhelm II and Hitler had been put down by coalitions. By people fed up with their antics.
A somewhat similar thing happened during the Cold War. A bullying regime, the Soviets, was kept in check by an informal ‘coalition of the willing’. ‘Informal’ in the sense that NATO was only the ‘tip of the iceberg. In reality, the Soviet Union had been defeated by the ‘free world’ working in concert.

Nowadays, ‘living in interesting times’, we witness another coalition taking shape.
Three authoritarian leaders ‘pushed together’ by a fourth one… By the antics perpetrated by a guy pretending to uphold freedom. Absolute freedom…!

“Our measures do not tell us whether philosophy majors
go on to apply their newfound abilities in the service of truth and justice
or, conversely, for personal gain and glory.
Settling that question would require gathering a different kind of evidence.”

Reading it, https://theconversation.com/studying-philosophy-does-make-people-better-thinkers-according-to-new-research-on-more-than-600-000-college-grads-262681, brought back to memory another research subject. Linking a ‘reasonable consumption of alcohol’ to various health benefits.
A quick google search produced this:

The paper I found now, https://www.phcc.org.nz/briefing/glass-half-full-alcohols-health-benefits-cardiovascular-disease-still-controversial-and, is quite thorough.
More importantly, for me, it raises the points which bothered me when I first found out about the claim. On FB, more than five years ago.
I’ll put it in my own words.

Being able to drink for a relatively long time means one had a fairly strong health at the start of the whole process. And at least some degree of self-control.
Otherwise the drinker would have very soon become ill, an alcoholic, suffered some accidents… or any combination thereof.

Same thing regarding the findings of the first study.
Take a number of smart people. One has to be smart in order to be interested in philosophy! And able to graduate…
Train those people’s abilities. Help them develop whatever they’re good at. And like doing…
Then wonder about the good results you’ve achieved!

Writing this post made me realize that it goes far deeper than this.
No, this is not a self-congratulatory study. Far from it.
It’s stark warning!

“Public trust in higher education has hit record lows in recent years, according to polling by the Lumina Foundation and Gallup. Meanwhile, the rapid advance of generative AI has threatened the perceived value of a traditional college degree, as many previously vaunted white-collar skills are at risk of being automated.
Yet now more than ever, students must learn to think clearly and critically. AI promises efficiency, but its algorithms are only as good as the people who steer them and scrutinize their output.
The stakes are more than personal. Without citizens who can reason through complex issues and discern good information from bad, democracy and civic life are at risk.”

This paper is not about the virtues of learning!
It’s about us.
So many of us still have so much more to learn about the virtues of learning…

One possible explanation for what’s going on is that not enough of the learned people “go on to apply their newfound abilities in the service of truth and justice“.
Me starting this post with the distinct feeling that this was a self-congratulatory study is yet another confirmation of the generalized distrust which permeates the whole society.
We’ve reached that stage where we primarily look for reasons to refute.
Some say a little paranoia is good for you. That it keeps you safe.
I’m afraid we’ve reached exactly where ‘they’ want us to be.
Distrusting, paranoiac people cannot do anything together.

Constantly looking over your shoulder will never lead you forward.
Will only make you, us, susceptible to manipulation.
Remember, in this context, how many reasonable posts we get from people supporting various horrendous ideas.
How many ‘think with your own head’ messages we get from those ‘also’ promoting MAGA. How many times Putin says he only makes ‘reasonable’ demands.

How can we build trust?
I don’t know how but I do know we don’t have any alternative.

We either learn to respect each-other, and build trust together, or become subjects.
And I’ve already been a subject. To a communist regime. Don’t want to repeat the experience.

Mind what you wish for,
for it might happen…

Putin wants to survive while Trump wants the same thing.
Xi also wants Putin to survive…

Without Putin(ism), Europe wouldn’t spend a dime on weapons. On American weapons!
America would have to develop and maintain alone the hardware needed to keep Xi at bay.

Once Putin gone, the Russian people will completely turn their attention towards Europe.
Leaving the ‘Chinese model’ stranded. In limbo…

What do we want?!?
Who cares?!? But now, that you’ve asked…

We want America back!
The already great America…
The one wise enough to save Europe from itself. Twice!
The one wise enough to help Japan back on its feet after WWII.
The one wise, and brave, enough to defend South Korea.
The one wise enough to understand that behaving like a bull in a China shop might be fun. For a while… but inexorably produces a fine mess… Specially when the bull owns much of the china being traded in that shop!

America does have a huge responsibility in maintaining the world in a working state. For the simple reason that America’s wealth depends, directly and indirectly, on the smooth functioning of the increasingly integrated world market.
Forgetting this, and concentrating your attention on ‘particular interests’, vested or not, is nothing short of blinding yourself. Of shutting reality out!

And we want Europe back!
Europe has already done the same mistake America is about to commit.
Behaved like the bull in the China shop. Literally. Then, overwhelmed by the consequences, left out without clearing up the mess.

Finally, but equally important, we need China – along with all other ‘wishful thinkers’ – to learn.
To understand that behaving like a bull in the China shop, even if you do it at home, doesn’t help anybody. Not in the long run.
Everybody, including the bull, ends up in tatters…

“Russia’s U.N. Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia acknowledged “constructive changes” in the U.S. position on the conflict. He told the council the resolution was “not an ideal one,” but “a starting point for future efforts towards peaceful settlement.””

By sending the Red Army to invade Ukraine, Putin had crossed a red line.
The rest of the world noticed.

Some played possum. ‘Let’s stay out of it. And maybe, maybe, get something for ourselves’.
The majority said “No! This is too much.”

Russia does have veto-power in the UN Security Council. Hence the dead-lock.

The Biden led US and the EU had chosen to support Ukraine. And to sanction the Putin regime.

Every day, people are being killed. Soldiers on the front and civilians under aerial bombardment.
Reasonable individuals want the fighting to stop.

Easier said than done.
Putin might say: ‘My bad!’ and tell his soldiers to go home.
Ukraine might agree, on its own volition, with enough of Putin’s demands. And, hopefully, get at least a respite.
Or those helping Ukraine might say: ‘We had enough. From now on, you’re on your own.’

Putin is not yet ready to back off. Ukraine is not yet ready to cave in.
‘Somebody’ is getting ready to act as a mediator.

What are the immediate consequences?

Putin is back. No longer an outcast!

Is the rest of the world ready?
For it to go back? Back to what was going on before WWI but on a far wider scale?

Urletele din jur au o menire:
să ne facă să uităm că noi suntem pe scaunul șoferului.

Radu Hossu

Situația de acum seamănă destul de bine cu cea dintre cele doua războaie mondiale.
Germania lui Dolfi își lingea rănile produse de inepțiile din tratatul de la Versailles.
Rusia lui Putin își linge rănile pe care și le-a făcut singură în timpul încercării avortate de a trece la democrație.

Dolfi și Putin s-au folosit de ‘oportunitățile’ pe care le-au identificat, au confiscat puterea și s-au permanentizat la butoane.

După cum foarte bine știm, gestionarea unei ‘împărății’ seamănă cu mersul pe bicicletă. E mai ușor să pornești decât să te oprești. Între timp, n-ai voie să te oprești. Trebuie să te războiești tot timpul cu cineva!

Europa din vremea lui Dolfi – de voie, de nevoie și mai târziu decât ar fi fost cazul – s-a hotărât totuși să lupte. Să răspundă în mod adecvat și sustenabil pe termen lung agresiunii la care a fost supusă. De către Dolfi.
Ucraina din vremea lui Putin a pierdut și ea ceva vreme dar a reușit totuși să se mobilizeze. Chiar dacă mai târziu și nu chiar cu toată inima. Vezi corupția care diminuează ‘capacitatea de efort’.

Dându-și seama că ar rămâne singură, America lui Roosevelt s-a apucat până la urmă să ajute Europa. Inclusiv Rusia.
Dându-și seama că vine la rând, bucată cu bucată, Europa de acum s-a mobilizat până la urmă să ajute Ucraina. Chiar dacă mai târziu și nu foarte entuziast.

Mai sunt câteva lucruri trecute de multe ori cu vederea.

Capitalurile americane investite în Germania dintre cele două războaie mondiale. Capitalurile ‘nord-atlantice’ investite în Rusia.
Interesele Chinei. Care destabilizează scena într-un fel oarecum echivalent cu ceea ce a făcut Japonia imperială în acea perioadă din secolul trecut.
America lui Trump este în altă epocă evolutivă față de America lui Roosevelt.

La fel de puțin evident e și faptul că Europa – împreună – este, încă, cel mai mare și mai puternic agent economic și social. Și că ar putea strivi oricând Rusia, dacă aceasta nu ar avea arsenalul ei nuclear.

Principalele piedici aflate acum în fața Europenilor sunt “urletele” despre care vorbea Radu Hossu.
Fake-urile destinate să ne tulbure percepția și să ne întunece judecata.

Principalul lucru pe care îl ignorăm este faptul că Rusia este mult mai aproape de Europa decât de China.
Geografic, cultural, social…
Al doilea lucru pe care alegem să-l ignorăm este că America, chiar dacă europeană la origine, este la ‘pubertate’. Își pune la îndoială tradițiile.

În mod firesc, ca toate regimurile autocratice, dominația lui Putin asupra Rusiei se va încheia. La un moment dat, într-un fel sau altul. Chiar dacă Putin va reuși să numească un succesor și să-i consolideze puterea. Toate regimurile cu administrație centralizată se prăbușesc datorită selecției negative. Posturile de decizie sunt acaparate de yes-mani, ceea ce produce anchilozarea sistemului. Care devine incapabil să mai facă față!

Singurul lucru pe care îl avem de făcut este să învățăm de la Putin.
Acesta își pune minionii să ne învrăjbească. Să ne facă să ne certăm între noi. Să ne exaspereze atât de tare încât să nu mai fim în stare să vedem realitatea.

Noi ar trebui să facem exact invers.
Să găsim o cale prin care să transmitem lumii – și în special poporului Rus – un mesaj coerent.
Accentul trebuie să fie pus pe coerență!
Puterea inspiră frică în timp ce coerența inspiră respect. Iar noi avem nevoie să fim respectați!
În felul acesta, doar în felul acesta, vom reuși să le transmitem Rușilor că împreună ne va fi mai bine.

Nouă chiar mai bine decât ne e acum, lor mult mai bine decât le este fiind la dispoziția lui Putin.

Aceiași coerență ne va ajuta în procesul de refacere a relației cu Statele Unite.

Singura cale prin care putem transmite un mesaj coerent, este să ne comportăm coerent.
Să spunem lucrurilor pe nume și să facem ce este de făcut!

Your Liberty To Swing Your Fist Ends
Just Where My Nose Begins

Now, what would you have done if this guy had started to swing his fists? In the very proximity of your precious nose?
“Stood your ground” or gave him enough ‘space to exercise’?

You’re not exactly comfortable with the current meaning of ‘stand your ground’?

Then maybe it’s high time for us to understand that ‘stand your ground’ is the direct consequence of ‘your liberty ends where my nose begins’.

Not comfortable with the current situation?

Then maybe it’s high time for us to come up with another definition for liberty.
One which brings forward the cooperative effort which made liberty possible in the first place.
Instead of the confrontational one currently in use. Which serves perfectly the interests of those powerful enough to define evolution as “survival of the fittest”.
Which serves perfectly the interests of those powerful enough to be convinced that only those able to defend their liberty are worthy to be free.

The key word here being “their”, not “liberty”!
For this kind of people, for the Capones of this world, freedom – their freedom – is something to be appropriated rather than shared.

Think about it!
Do you remember the argument ‘the west has provoked the current situation’?

“Mr Farage said he had been arguing since the 1990s that “the ever eastward expansion” of the Nato military alliance and the EU was giving President Putin “a reason to [give to] his Russian people to say they’re coming for us again and to go to war”.
He added: “We provoked this war. Of course, it’s [President Putin’s] fault.””

What kind of freedom do we want?
For us and for our children?
The kind that must be constantly wrenched from the likes of Putin or one shared freely among all those present?
Built cooperatively or defended against all others?

Shaking willing hands or swinging fists?

History doesn’t go anywhere.
It pesters us with lessons.
Until we figure out their meanings.
Or until there’s no one left.
No one left to be pestered!

Darwin 2.0

One of the recurrent lessons history is peppered with:
‘Imperia always fail. Sooner or later, eventually all imperial social arrangements end up in abject failure.
Empires as well as monopolies.’

And no, the Pharaonic empire didn’t last for 3000 years.
What happened there was 30 something successive empires. Read dynasties.
Whenever a dynasty lost its grip, its empire folded. Whenever a new dynasty took over, it presided over a new empire.
Same thing happened in modern France. Same territory, same population, same culture, 5 republics and two empires since 1789. The fact that the last three republics have been consecutive doesn’t merge them into a single one.

Europe has been the scene of a whole host of wars. Some of them worldwide wars.
Since the French Revolution, all empires which had attempted to subjugate their neighbors have failed.

Napoleon’s attempt had initiated the German ‘coming together’ and turned Russia’s attention back to Europe.
Napoleon the 3rd had helped Bismark to finalize Prussia’s taking over the rest of what we currently call Germany.
WWI was started by people who had no clue and put on hold by people who had no vision. Started by imperialistically thinking people who didn’t see any need to evaluate the consequences of their countries going to war and put on hold by (other) imperialistically thinking people who continued the well established tradition. Again, without any attempt to evaluate the consequences. Hence the vanquished - the only vanquished that was still standing at the end of the war, Germany – was presented with a hefty bill. And made to pay crippling war reparations. Which clumsy actions had prepared the scene for Hitler’s advent to power.
WWII – or, more exactly, WWI 2.0 – was ended by far wiser decision makers. Who had chosen to integrate the vanquished rather than deepening the trenches.
Although fought with ‘softer’ weapons, WWIII – also known as the Cold War – fits perfectly. It was also lost by the aggressor. Not as much won by those resisting as lost by the empire attempting to widen its grasp.

What we currently have on our hands, WWIV, is a ‘pinnacle’.
Putin attempting to revive Russia’s ‘old glory’ and the reaction of the ‘free world’ are a case study. And a horrible remake. Mistakes already made since the French Revolution have been reenacted as if never happened.
The aggressor failed to realize that at some point his actions will beget a reaction. That even if that reaction will be late, it will surely come about.
The ‘good guys’ have forgotten – never really cared to understand? – the lessons of WWI and WWII. No real attempt to integrate post communist Russia into the democratic fold had been made. Not in an organized manner, anyway. Everybody was happy that ‘history had finally reached its end’ and Russia was left to its own devices. Even worse, it was treated as a no-man’s land. Mutatis mutandis, post-communist Russia had been treated just as South America and Africa had been treated after they had been discovered by the Europeans.
Even worse, the ‘good guys’ have forgotten – or had never understood – that a bully has to be stopped early. And that the easiest way to stop a bully is to encourage his ‘sycophants’ to free themselves from his influence. And to help, in earnest, those who are bullied to overcome their plight.

Now, almost two years after the aggression organized by Putin against Ukraine has become ‘hot’, there still are people who consider Ukraine should negotiate. Should accept the inevitable.
Other consider that helping Ukraine is ‘money down the drain’. That there’s no way for Ukraine to win.

The way I see this, we’re back in 1942.
Nazi troops were controlling most of Europe and most of North-Africa. But the signs were already there.
Russia, nor Britain, didn’t collapse under the onslaught. The nazis had been driven out from Moscow’s suburbs and Leningrad remained out of reach.
From there on… Hitler kept making stupid moves. Until the Third Reich crumbled under its own weight. Helped by the Allied bombardments.
And let’s not forget the huge amount of western weapons and munitions shipped by Russia’s then allies to Murmansk. Nor those hauled using the Iranian railway.

Now.
Will we relearn the lessons which are readily available to us?
The lessons we should have already learned?
What’s keeping us?
Does anybody still think Putin, or any other dictator, will ever stop?
Tired of waiting? Be glad Ukraine isn’t.
Be glad Ukraine isn’t tired of fighting!


I’m convinced Putin still believes he might get away with it.
With whatever he wishes to accomplish…

Why?
Because he is convinced that the only thing which might prevent him from achieving his goal is ‘the West’.
You see, he is adamant that without the ‘western influence’ he would have imposed his will upon Ukraine a very long time ago. After all, he’d already done that in Russia, didn’t he?
And the West seems to be loosing its focus….

A lot of ‘distraction’. Trump is indicted on 37 counts, mainly for mishandling highly sensitive information, while Boris Johnson quits his MP chair claiming he is the victim. ‘I did mislead the Commons but I didn’t do it on purpose’.

According to Putin’s book, there’s no difference between him and these two guys. All three of them have nothing in their mind but their own interest. In this respect, Putin is absolutely right.
What he fails to realize is that Trump being indicted and Johnson being investigated by the Commons are signs of strength. The US and Britain, respectively, seem to have came back to their senses. And started cleaning up their act.

He, Putin, also fails to realize that the Western help might come in handy. For the Ukrainians.
But what keeps them fighting is their will. Their quest for freedom!

The very same thing had happened during WWII.
The West did carry huge amounts of weaponry to the former USSR. Which weapons had helped the Red Army resist – and then defeat – Hitler’s attempt to enlarge the German Lebensraum. But without the ordinary Russians putting up with the war… all western help would have been lost!
Same thing is happening under our own eyes. The arms beefing up Ukraine’s army might come in handy but it’s the Ukrainian determination to lead their own, independent, life which will eventually douse Putin’s ambition.

One final thing.
Nazi Germany had ultimately failed because it was an ‘imperium’. A socio-political arrangement where all decisions were made in a highly centralized manner. Where mistakes accumulated and eventually made it impossible for the arrangement to survive. Because unsolved past mistakes make it impossible for a system to evolve. To solve present day challenges.

Any resemblance to what’s going on in present day Russia is nothing but yet another proof that failing to understand history forces you to repeat the lesson.

War is over when the goals have been achieved, not when the enemy had been destroyed.
While sometimes you have to utterly obliterate the enemy in order to achieve your goals, this is not always necessarily true.


Hari Bucur-Marcu

This makes a lot of sense, right?

Yeah, sort of…

The problem with this approach being that this understanding degrades war to a simple instrument.

Something used by a decision maker towards the achievement of certain ‘goals’.

The problem with this approach being that it obliterates the decision power of all other people involved in it. Of everybody else but of those calling the shots. Pun intended!

All analysts commenting Putin’s ‘special military operation’ babble on about Putin’s goals.
‘Ukraine will never be able to crush Russia, militarily, so we need to understand what’s going on in Putin’s mind.
In order to be able to ‘bribe’ him into ending the war. Or to black mail him. Only we need to understand first what will constitute a too big of a price for him to pay.’

On the other hand, Putin seems to be thinking along the same lines.
‘I need to preserve my position. MY power. Ukraine is a bad example for the Russian people. They have shifted their ‘allegiance’ and want to build a real democracy. I cannot allow this to happen, otherwise I’ll be next.
Now, how much pain do I have to inflict in order to achieve my goal? Directly, upon the Ukrainians and indirectly, upon the rest of the world?’

Meanwhile, the rest of those involved in this situation bear the brunt of the war. Directly and indirectly.

Some of them understand what’s going on and some don’t.

My point being that not all instruments are born equal.
While all are nothing but mere ‘sticks’ in the hands of the agents wielding them, choosing to use a certain instrument among the available alternatives speaks volumes about the agent making the choice.

What are we, reasonable creatures, to understand when an agent chooses an instrument which debases all other creatures to the role of ‘kill or be killed’?
For whatever reason and under whatever pretext?
Is that agent ever going to stop? To stop setting ‘goals’, further and further away?

Specially after having the ‘first installment’ safely tucked under the belt…

7 years after the accord had been signed, and never implemented, Putin had ordered his army to invade, again, Ukraine.
Using Lukashenko’s Belarus as a springboard.

As of now, all five people who had signed the accord had failed. In more ways than one.
None of their stated goals have been achieved.
The three democratically elected leaders had failed in the sense that they had not been able to prevent the escalation of the conflict.
The two dictators have not, as of yet, been able to fulfill their ‘promises’.

For almost a year now, Ukraine had been able to defend itself against the Russian aggression. In the first days of the ‘special operation’, Ukraine had managed to do this alone! Only after the initial surprise had given birth to hope, the ‘west’ had started to send in meaningful assistance.
Which strongly suggests that a people which is in control of its own fate – as in ‘democratically decides its own future’ – has a greater ability to fight than a people sent to the battle field at the whims of a dictator.

One by one, the democratically elected signatories of the Minsk agreement had been replaced. One way or another, all of them peaceful. Not necessarily as a consequence of this particular failure but, nevertheless, they are no longer able to make any other hugely significant mistake.
The two dictators continue to dictate. To make mistakes and to defend their previous mistakes. To cause misery.

Looking at the whole thing from a distance, the situation is simple.

All governments suffer a recurring problem: Power attracts pathological personalities. It is not that power corrupts but that it is magnetic to the corruptible.

Frank Herbert

Unfortunately, things are even worse. Not only that power is magnetic to the corruptible but also most ‘ordinary’ people tend to have a hard time acknowledging mistake.
Once committed, even by the most incorruptible person, a mistake gets a life of its own. And works hard at convincing the perpetrator to ‘hide’ it. Hence to commit even worse mistakes.

Now, why is power magnetic for the corruptible?
Because power makes it possible for the ‘agent’ to ‘hide’ a lot of mistakes!

The way I see it, people have a knack for learning on the run.
The shape of the learning curve and the duration of the process depends on the particulars of each situation but all people eventually get there. Those who survive to that point, of course…

What’s to be learned from all this?

The obvious, my dear Watson!

All those five powerful agents in the picture above have failed.
Yet the French and the Germans fare a lot better than the Russians and the Belorussians while the Ukrainians fight better than the Russians.

What’s the main difference between those two ‘sides’?

Those who fare better change their leaders more easily and more often?
Before their mistakes pile up? And become ‘too big to fail’?