Archives for posts with tag: The law of the unintended consequences

Don’t mess up!

March 30, 2024 //
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The Dunning-Kruger effect occurs
when a person’s lack of knowledge and skill in a certain area
causes them to overestimate their own competence.

‘Experience’… as in “drag you down to their level and beat you with experience”…

But is this even possible?
For a really stupid individual to survive for so long?!? For long enough to become ‘old and experienced’…

Maybe we need to reconsider the whole thing!

My own experience – ‘Trust me, I’m an engineer!’ and I’m not kidding – strongly suggests that ‘bona fide’ stupidity is far less abundant than currently advertised.
The hard reality we have to deal with is the one described by the Dunning-Kruger effect.

Whenever we don’t understand other people’s actions, or motives, we tend to consider them as being stupid. Actions, motives and even the people themselves.
Specially when we experience the slightest discomfort as a consequence of such actions.

Furthermore, much of what is currently considered to be a consequence of stupidity is rather the result of accrued ‘misguided smartness’.

“The law of unintended consequences
was first mentioned by British philosopher John Locke
when writing to parliament about the unintended effects of interest rate rises.
However, it was popularized in 1936 by
American sociologist Robert K. Merton who looked at
unexpected, unanticipated, and unintended consequences
and their impact on society.“

On the other hand, never underestimate what mere happenstance can accomplish!

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Categories alternative ways of acquring knowledge, arrogance, awareness, Bounded rationality, Choices we make, effective communication, In English, Mutual Respect, skin in the game

‘Solving problems’

September 2, 2018 //
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I just finished reading an excellent article about AI.

And it hit me.

We are simultaneously capable of noticing our limits and utterly incapable of dealing with them.

Well… if you think of it, this is the very definition of a ‘limit’.
Something which cannot be overcome…

We have a limited understanding of the world, we know this and yet we’re arrogant enough to embark on building  autonomous mechanisms to help us react to something we haven’t yet fully understood ourselves…

Archimedes was famous for “give me a place to stand, and a lever long enough, and I’ll move the Earth”.
Robert K Merton warned us about the ‘Law of the unintended consequences’.
The last financial melt down was yet another proof of what happens when highly leveraged instruments are used without any shred of ‘modesty’.
All major religions warn us about the consequences of building our own idols.

Despite all this, we barrel on.
Regardless.

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Categories authoritarianism, Bounded rationality, Choices we make, collective identity, effective communication, limited rationality, man induced fragility, Mutual Respect, The kind of world we are building for our children, Uncategorized

From cradle to grave.

March 21, 2018 //
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Recent developments connected with some people having used Facebook to manipulate the public opinion have led me to understand something absolutely trivial.

Almost everything can be used as a resource.
And it’s us, all of us, who are ultimately responsible for how these resources are being used.

For no other reason than it is us who will eventually bear the consequences.

Having said this, I’m now wondering about the wisdom of our ancestors…
And the nearsightedness of some of our contemporaries!
the golden rule

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Categories Bounded rationality, Choices we make, collective identity, effective communication, Frames of mind, limited rationality, manipulation, moral hazard, Mutual Respect, Psychology, Social justice, The kind of world we are building for our children, Transparency, Trust